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Fiscal fun, for a change

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  • US durable goods orders and new home sales are due both volatile reports in volatile times. Markets will put their focus here, although from an economist's point of view it is the release of the Fed's flow of funds data that has the best potential to enhance our understanding of the economy.
  • Greece and the Troika have reached an agreement. Not on restructuring Greek debt again (clearly), just on the forecast for GDP growth this year (- 4%). Meanwhile the details of France's fiscal consolidation are to be released today. We know the headlines, and what markets really want to see is implementation.
  • Congress continues to exhibit its customary maturity and sophistication as the fiscal pantomime continues there. Senator Reid has proposed shortening the duration of the continuing resolution to 15 November (from 15 December)which would force a more coherent budget to be agreed earlier.
  • UK consumer behaviour will be glimpsed indirectly through the CBI distributive trades survey data today. More directly the German GfK consumer sentiment indicator is due, in the wake of a very mild disappointment in the business sector ifo data yesterday.

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