Follow Paul Donovan

If you can wait, and not be tired by waiting

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • As markets fall into something of a stupor waiting for the Fed decision, there are some events still worth noting in the background. The UK releases inflation data, which should remain benign but similarly is not likely to make the BoE forward guidance.
  • The Euro area economic stabilisation continues (our Euro team revised up their growth estimates yesterday), but it is stabilising at a below trend rate of growth. That means that unemployment and its attendant social problems is likely to persist€“ Greece reported record unemployment yesterday (again).
  • With German elections looming a weekly poll puts the CDU/FDP on 44%, the same level as the main opposition parties. However the emergence of the Eurosceptic AfD group and questions over whether the FDP will get 5% of the vote make translating polls into Bundestag seats problematic.
  • The US publishes inflation numbers, which may matter for monetary policy but perhaps are less significant for quantitative policy. We see the headline a little lower than consensus on gasoline price weakness, but the core at 0.2%.

Listen to the  audio version of this briefing.