Luck and guidance
- Australian labour market data was weaker than expected unemployment rising and labour force participation declining (never a happy combination). Market speculation about monetary accommodation may be overdone, however, given recent improvements in corporate and consumer confidence.
- More leaks in the Japanese media suggesting that the consumption tax will indeed increase to 8% (from 5%) next April. A formal announcement is expected next month, but the media reports are sufficiently authoritative that investors should treat this as a certainty.
- ECB president Draghi is going to be speaking with some other governing council members. The tone of ECB comment has been pretty consistent recently acknowledging the economy has bottomed, but stressing the challenges that remain.
- Several Bank of England members are speaking, one with a Canadian accent, with testimony to Parliament on the inflation report. The governor will doubtless stress his forward guidance, which markets and the public seem happy to ignore entirely.
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