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Geopolitics returns

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  • Geopolitical risk is back to worry financial investors. US Secretary of State Kerry's comments about holding Syria's government to account for its actions have raised concerns about possible military involvement (the White House says no decision has been made).
  • Whatever the human or moral concerns, economically there is little direct consequence from international involvement in Syria. Rather the economic reaction depends on the reaction of other (more economically significant) countries to international involvement in Syria.
  • The US Treasury has started the roughly semi-annual debt ceiling dance with Congress suggesting that the debt ceiling limit will be reached in October (and politely suggesting that Congress may like to do something about that).
  • German ifo confidence is due and should continue the recent trend of improvement. US consumer confidence from the Conference Board is expected to follow alternative surveys and show some slight retracement, however.

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