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  • A big, big, big day of excitement (for economists). We get the US Federal Reserve decision. Policy change is not expected. Hopes of some kind of forward guidance today may be disappointed. Perhaps better to guide when policy changes in September.
  • US GDP precedes the Fed decision. We are looking for 1.2% annualised (marginally higher than the market, but not enough to excite). The interest may well lie in the possibility of positive revisions to data over the past year or so, with the benchmark revision process.
  • The Euro area has unemployment (a lagging indicator, but not likely to be pretty) and inflation (not expected to do very much). The UK saw weak shop price inflation, but strong consumer confidence �€“ suggesting deflation may stimulate demand rather than be a function of weak demand.
  • Japanese wage deflation seems to be alive and well, and of course rising import prices exacerbate the decline in real wages. Japanese media report that cuts in discretionary government spending are being planned. Meanwhile China's politburo said it is targeting stable growth.

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