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Inflation day

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  • Inflation statistics seem to be pouring out on all sides �€“ and although investor attention has wandered away from inflation as a concern, we are generally looking for numbers to surprise on the upside (though still generally benign) rather than the downside.
  • The UK has consumer, retail and producer inflation, with an expectation of higher numbers in the market. That might temper some of the more dovish views of the Bank of England on the tail of the expectations distribution. Euro CPI is also due, and also seen picking up a little..
  • US headline CPI should be pushed higher by energy prices, but the core will likely remain relatively benign. We hear from the more hawkish Fed member George today, though her remarks are likely overshadowed by the enticing prospect of Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking for the FOMC as a whole tomorrow.
  • The minutes from the Australian central bank have sounded a little less dovish than had been anticipated �€“ the weakening of the Australian dollar was noted as cause of inflation, though the currency's value was still described as "high". A rate cut in August still seems likely, though perhaps a little less certain.