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Data bonanza

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  • Japan's economic data showed the expected drop in unemployment, but weaker industrial production gains than had been looked for. Retail sales were worse than expected - Japanese consumers have positive expectations for inflation (they always have had) but negative expectations for income.
  • Spanish first quarter GDP is scheduled, and of course expected to be negative. This, combined with the new higher (more realistic) forecasts for the deficit may change the debt:GDP dynamic, which in turn has the potential to raise investor concerns about Spain's credit rating.
  • Euro area CPI is unlikely to change the outcome of this week's ECB meeting, widely expected to result in a cut in rates. The consequences of existing Bank of England policy will be on display with the release of money supply data..
  • The US is offering employment cost data and consumer confidence. Employment costs are of strategic interest to economists, but unlikely to excite a response from markets. US consumers have shown a strong inclination to overreact in their confidence reports of late.

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