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Will Iran lubricate global growth?

  • A temporary nuclear deal with Iran has led to a modest reaction in the oil price. Lower oil prices are a benefit to net oil importers (offset by an equal loss to net oil exporters). With growth next year biased to oil importing economies this should be seen as a marginal positive for the global economy.
  • The Bank of Japan's Kuroda was arguing that the use of negative interest rates was uncertain as to its impact, and had little precedent (at least for long term use). Negative interest rates are only likely to offer stimulus if the banking system is functioning, of course.
  • Baking system operations remain a concern in the Euro area. Noyer of the ECB was suggesting he does not see a deflation threat, but he does see low inflation (and by implication, accommodative policy) for some time to come.
  • UK mortgage approvals data may be looked to as investors muse about the risks of a housing bubble (although over a third of UK homes seem to be purchased without a mortgage at the moment). French business confidence data is also due.

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