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Fed day

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  • The first FOMC since the September policy error concludes today, with a statement. Nothing is likely to change (it would be difficult to justify a change) and the minutes a couple of weeks hence will most probably offer the best guidance as to Fed thinking.
  • A credit rating agency has said it discussed taking away New Zealand's AAA rating this presumably is "random comment negative" but not a formal "outlook negative" rating.
  • Japanese industrial production was a little weaker than expected but was at least a positive number (1.5% yoy). Industrial production is now broadly back at the level it was in 2010, though Japanese corporates still seem to favour overseas production rather than domestic.
  • The Euro area gives business and consumer confidence data, but the medium term outlook is likely to be more dependent on the information in the quarterly bank lending survey. Several ECB speakers have been emphasising the (rather obvious) constraint bank lending is imposing on economic activity.

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