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The recovery continues (slowly)

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  • We have no US employment report this week (postponed by the government shutdown) but there is the two day FOMC, and hopefully an attempt to clarify communication in the wake of the September policy error. Industrial production is seen coming out a little soft today.
  • Chinese interbank rates held stable in the morning session. Markets remain concerned about monetary conditions but we do not think that the PBoC will allow a repeat of the June spike in interest rates.
  • UK house prices on the Hometrack survey came in at 3.1% yoy (not a level that suggests "bubble", particularly outside of London). The CBI distributive trades survey is the main data release today.
  • UBS has published 2015 economic forecasts today, looking for the slow recovery to continue this year's 2.5% global growth picking up to 3.4% in 2014 and 2015. The US leads, with the Euro area slowly improving. Japan is seen on a downwards trajectory, and emerging markets have slower domestic demand.

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