UBS Securities Research
- The US employment report was generally soggy in tone. Lower unemployment data (though not a function of falling labour participation) did not offset a lower than expected payrolls change. The October report promises confusion unemployment will be hit by furloughed government workers, payrolls will not.
- Markets took a perhaps somewhat simplistic approach to interpreting the data, assuming that it delays any prospective quantitative policy tightening. That ignored the role of money velocity in determining quantitative as opposed to monetary policy, perhaps.
- The Euro area has politics to divert today. Coalition negotiations continue in Germany the length of the negotiations is not especially surprising. However, this does mean that Germany will be represented by a caretaker government at the European summit this week.
- UK monetary policy is in focus with the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting. Forward guidance has hit financial markets with all the force of a handful of wet spaghetti, and the BoE reaction will be of interest. Mortgage data is also due.
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