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A stronger employment report?

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  • The September US employment report is scheduled. Some investors have questioned whether US data will be less accurate as a result of the government shutdown. The employment report would mainly have been surveyed pre shutdown (and the accuracy of the establishment survey might be higher because of the delay).
  • We expect the trend of an improving labour market to be evident in today's figures. Unemployment is forecast to drop 0.1% with payrolls gaining 195,000 a stronger than consensus reading, but consistent with some of the higher frequency labour indicators.
  • The Euro area has a quiet data calendar, and an enforced lull as US numbers are anticipated. However, the strength of the Euro may prompt some periodic complaints from the export sector(stronger currencies normally do, though there are benefits from a stronger Euro too).
  • UK government borrowing data is scheduled, with the Chancellor also set to give a speech. The Bank of England's Bean is due to offer some remarks, but in the conventional manner (not tweeting like the Bank's Chief Economist).

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.