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Data day

  • After over eleven years of an inflation target that was to get inflation positive, Japan's latest inflation print cam in negative (again). Markets seem to have interpreted this as a prelude to still greater efforts on the part of policy makers to tackle the problem.
  • Spain's Prime Minister has pledged to keep extra unemployment benefits in place until such point as Spain's unemployment rate dips below 20%. Spain's unemployment rate rose above 26% yesterday - even allowing for a bias to higher unemployment in Spain this is a strain on public finance.
  • The UK's Office of National Statistics will publish its "estimate" of Q4 GDP, and doubtless revise all the previous quarters (the UK's ONS does a lot of revision on GDP). We are looking for a -0.2% qoq figure for Q4.
  • German ifo business confidence is due, rounding of a week of sentiment data. German numbers have tended to come in somewhat better than expected, and it is other areas of the Eurozone that have underperformed.

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