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Joshua McCallum

Joshua McCallum is Head of Fixed Income Economics at UBS Asset Management, where he provides economic analysis to support and challenge portfolio managers. Before joining UBS in 2005, Joshua worked for the UK Treasury, dealing with an eclectic range of topics including international macroeconomics, the UK budget, economic reform in Europe, and post-conflict fiscal policy in Iraq.

Joshua McCallum recently

November 2015

  1. Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    Recent weakness in the US is largely down to an inventory adjustment, but this recent move just highlights the long rebuilding of inventories relative to sales since the financial crisis. Does this reflect a conscious decision to hold higher inventories, or is it a sign of continually disappointing sales?

  2. Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    After last week's strong US labor market report, the market is now pricing in a Fed rate hike in December as a near certainty. Although growth in non-farm pay-rolls has recently slowed, it might be still strong enough to push down the unemployment rate further. Hence, everything boils down to how much spare capacity there is left in the US population.

  3. Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    The effects arising from the close interplay of monetary policy and exchange rate policy are not uniformly felt across the world's economies. For the Fed, which enjoys the privilege of issuing the reserve currency, those effects are muted. Not so, however, for other Central Banks, such as the BOE, who must wrestle with the vagaries of exchange rate pass-through and the uncertainty which that can bring.

Recent charts

Will it all end in drachma?

Greek residents' bank deposits (EUR billions)

Source: Bank of Greece