Follow Joshua McCallum
Joshua McCallum is Head of Fixed Income Economics at UBS Global Asset Management, where he provides economic analysis to support and challenge portfolio managers. Before joining UBS in 2005, Joshua worked for the UK Treasury, dealing with an eclectic range of topics including international macroeconomics, the UK budget, economic reform in Europe, and post-conflict fiscal policy in Iraq.
In 2010, debt sustainability analysis of Greek debt relied on several heroic assumptions to conclude that Greek debt was sustainable. These assumptions had to be revised with Greece’s second bailout in 2012, when there was a partial admission of unsustainability. Now Eurozone leaders are discussing the third bailout. What measures will need to be discussed to alleviate Greece’s debt burden?
With the Fed set to raise interest rates later this year, will that lead to contagion and higher rates in the rest of the world? Emerging markets may be worried as they are potentially the most exposed to US monetary policy. The taper tantrum in 2013 showed how disruptive a US tightening could be for some emerging markets. Will a Fed hike lead to a repeat of those tensions?
Asian exports have previously been a good early warning signal of a global downturn. Asian exports have taken a dive once more, so does this mean that the recent optimism about prospects for developed market growth is misplaced?
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