UBS consumption indicator: a better start to the fall
The UBS consumption indicator rose slightly in September to 1.41 points from 1.28. This stopped the downward trend of the last three months.
Zurich/Basel, 30 October 2014 – The UBS consumption indicator rose slightly to 1.41 points in September after losing considerable ground in the summer months June to August, when it dropped to 1.28 points from 2.07. The rainy summer generated hardly any interest in vacationing in Switzerland. From January until August the number of overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals fell by 0.7% compared to the previous year, also pushing the UBS consumption indicator down. We expect that a slight recovery has begun for Swiss tourism, starting from September. The economic research institute BAKBASEL and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs estimate that, in September and October, the number of overnight hotel stays in Switzerland could increase by around 1.5% year-on-year.
New car registrations stabilized in September. With an increase of 0.1%, new car registrations remain almost unchanged compared to the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the period from January to September, however, there is still a 3.2% drop in the number of new cars registered, compared to the same period last year.
The retail business activity sub-indicator, tracked by the Swiss economic research institute KOF at the Institute of Technology in Zurich and constituting one of five sub-indicators in the UBS consumption indicator, remained in negative territory at –2 points in September. This means the pessimists among retailers are slightly in the majority. The mood barometer for the retail trade is still below the long-term average of six points.