Turning Points

UBS House View «Year Ahead 2019»

Our economic outlook for the coming year

The investment environment is getting tougher. Growth is likely to slow in 2019, and so are corporate earnings, as the negative impact of trade tariffs is felt on the US and Chinese economies, and as tailwinds from US tax cuts wane. Monetary policy is getting tighter: 2019 will likely be the first year since the financial crisis when balance sheets end the year smaller than they started. Political risks, ranging from trade disputes, to Brexit, to Italy, abound. And the world continues to use more resources in an unsustainable way.

But at the same time some of the best opportunities can present themselves amid dislocations. Although volatility and uncertainty has increased, there are few signs to suggest that a recession is looming. Inflation remains contained, interest rates are being raised in a measured way, and global consumption looks to be in strong enough shape to see us through trade, or other specific, risks.

Investors need to have a clear financial plan to deal with a more challenging environment, and earning higher returns will take more work. But the opportunities are still out there. The «Year Ahead 2019» will give you a guide to the outlook, risks, and opportunities in the months to come to help you achieve your financial goals amid the uncertainty.

Explore our House View «Year Ahead 2019»

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