UBS House View «June 2019»
On Thursday 2 May, US productivity grew at a nine-year high. The next day, the US celebrated unemployment at a 50-year low. But investors who partied into the weekend were sick Monday morning after President Donald Trump tweeted he would increase tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to an escalation in the US-China trade conflict.
- Equity markets are still up year-to-date, despite escalating trade tensions.
- China is using policy stimulus to offset the impact of tariffs and is more concerned about technology than trade.
- A tough stance on China is playing well politically and the US has the tools to maintain the pressure.
- We have reduced risk over the last month but we add an overweight in an emerging market foreign exchange basket designed to benefit from a carry-friendly environment.
UBS House View Investors Guide
Our publication "UBS House View" gives you a compact overview of UBS's opinions on the financial markets. Drawing on our global investment and research capabilities, it aims to offer you the best, most up-to-date investment guidance.