House View

Investor's Guide July – Preparing for the second half

The UBS House View Investor's Guide is a monthly snapshot of our Chief Investment Office's (CIO) global views. This publication also offers you in-depth regional insights and targeted investment ideas to help you best implement CIO’s views in your investment strategy.

The current edition "Preparing for the second half" covers the following topics:

  • Global stocks managed to grind higher in the first half of the year, with upward pressure from strong economic growth and earnings winning out over a host of political and economic concerns.
  • Risks, notably from heightened trade tensions, remain in the second half, as well as worries about Eurozone growth slowing after the ECB withdraws quantitative easing and the US economy overheating.
  • Synchronized global economic growth has recently given way to more US-biased global growth. As a result we prefer to reduce positions vulnerable to USD strength. We are closing our overweight EM equities and halving our EM sovereign bond exposure.
  • We remain overweight global equities. But we are prepared for higher volatility and tail risks through countercyclical positions, such as an overweight in 10-year US Treasuries.

Do you want to know more? Please complete the below form to download the full report.

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