UBS House View

Investor's Guide May – Seeking direction

Our UBS House View Investor's Guide is a monthly snapshot of the CIO’s global views. This publication also offers you in-depth regional insights and targeted investment ideas to help you best implement CIO’s views in your investment strategy.

The current edition "Seeking direction" covers the following topics:

  • Year to date, global equities have experienced 17 days with a greater than 1% move up or down, versus just three in 2017. Yet stocks are roughly flat year to date.
  • Choppy trading conditions reflect geopolitical tensions, including conflict in the Middle East, and the threat of a global trade war, as well as the risk of accelerated monetary tightening.
  • Over our six-month investment horizon we expect stocks to advance and outperform high grade bonds, thanks to sound economic fundamentals. But higher uncertainty means we also hold diversified counter-cyclical positions.
  • We take profit on our overweight GBPCHF position, and close our emerging market currency basket trade, while keeping some of these investments in the portfolio.

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