Interest rate forecast

UBS mortgages in the current interest rate environment
January and February 2022 

Some central banks – but not all – start to raise key interest rates

In the new year, many central banks are likely to raise their key interest rates. The Bank of England went ahead with an initial interest rate increase at the end of 2021, while the Polish central bank was the first central bank to raise key interest rates in the new year. Statements by the US Federal Reserve indicate that it too will adjust key interest rates upward this year.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will probably be among the few central banks that will not follow this trend in 2022. Concerns about economic recovery will no doubt continue to be weighted higher than inflation risks. Echoing the ECB, the Swiss National Bank also considers that an interest rate hike is still a long way off. As long as the SNB maintains its negative interest rate policy, interest rates on government bonds and mortgage interest rates are also likely to remain at a low level.

Long-term interest rate trend in %

Section for a description of the chart and what it presents

Interest rate forecast in figures

Rates

Rates

10.01.22

10.01.22

30.06.22

30.06.22

31.12.22

31.12.22

30.06.23

30.06.23

31.12.23

31.12.23

Rates

SARON

10.01.22

–0.71

30.06.22

–0.75

31.12.22

–0.75

30.06.23

–0.75

31.12.23

–0.73

Rates

Swap 3 years

10.01.22

–0.29

30.06.22

–0.51

31.12.22

–0.51

30.06.23

–0.49

31.12.23

–0.45

Rates

Swap 5 years

10.01.22

–0.08

30.06.22

–0.29

31.12.22

–0.23

30.06.23

–0.18

31.12.23

–0.12

Rates

Swap 10 years

10.01.22

0.25

30.06.22

0.16

31.12.22

0.18

30.06.23

0.24

31.12.23

0.31

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