Interest rate forecast

UBS mortgages in the current interest rate environment
May 2022

How aggressively are central banks reacting?

In the slipstream of US and German interest rates, 10-year interest rates in Switzerland have risen since the beginning of 2022 by almost one percent. High inflation in Europe and the US, the hike in energy prices in recent months and increasingly nervous central banks have led to a sharp rise in interest rates.

The war in Ukraine and massively higher energy prices do not only lead to high inflation in the short term but are also a drag on the economy, thus reducing long-term inflationary pressures. This calls into question whether central banks will really react all that aggressively, as reflected today by long-term interest rates. If they do not, the current sharp rise is an overreaction, and interest rates on government bonds and mortgages will likely settle down at a lower level in the coming quarters.

Long-term interest rate trend in %

Section for a description of the chart and what it presents

Interest rate forecast in figures

Rates

Rates

20.04.22

20.04.22

30.06.22

30.06.22

31.12.22

31.12.22

30.06.23

30.06.23

31.12.23

31.12.23

Rates

SARON

20.04.22

–0.71

30.06.22

–0.75

31.12.22

–0.63

30.06.23

–0.34

31.12.23

0.04

Rates

Swap 3 years

20.04.22

0.45

30.06.22

0.04

31.12.22

0.18

30.06.23

0.31

31.12.23

0.52

Rates

Swap 5 years

20.04.22

0.78

30.06.22

0.42

31.12.22

0.48

30.06.23

0.54

31.12.23

0.68

Rates

Swap 10 years

20.04.22

1.25

30.06.22

0.81

31.12.22

0.81

30.06.23

0.82

31.12.23

0.93

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Mortgage interest rate forecast

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