Emerging markets fixed income

How much longer can it run?

23 jan 2018

Just like the best ultra-marathon runners, EM stamina and resistance endured through the fourth quarter of last year.

Emerging markets delivered strong returns during the last quarter of 2017 and regaled investors with double digit returns for a second year in a row in credit as well as in FX and rates.

The synchronized recovery of global economic activity with stable inflation, supportive commodity prices and a thoughtful and well communicated global monetary policy tightening by developed markets' central banks kept volatility and developed rates well anchored in a relatively narrow range, thus allowing for riskier carry trades to flourish well beyond expectations.

Improvements in emerging economies' fundamentals helped mitigate the negative impact of sporadic bouts of uncertainty brought about by geo-political and domestic shocks in several regions and countries.