UBS podcast: UBS FX strategist Geoffrey YU talks about the RMB movement

UBS podcast: UBS FX strategist, Geoffrey YU, talks about the RMB movement

With the Federal Reserve lowering its outlook for the US economy and long-term rates, UBS FX strategist, Geoffrey YU, expects the low volatility market environment to continue. He advises investors to focus on high-yielding currencies, especially in emerging markets and, in particular, the RMB.

In the short term, YU expects a return of inflows into China, which will increase the value of the RMB. As a result, the USD/RMB rate could trade below 6.20 in the near future. The forecast USD/RMB rates for 2014 and 2015, respectively, are 6.25 and 6.35.

Please refer to the attached UBS Podcast for more details.

 

瑞银外汇策略师余修远看人民币汇率变化

美联储在上周的政策会议上表示他们对美国经济的长远发展形势并不乐观,并且下调了长期的政策利率预期。为此,瑞银驻伦敦外汇策略师余修远提出,短期内市场会仍然看好套利货币,并且寻找高收益货币,尤其是新兴国家的一些货币,如人民币。

余修远提出,从短期来讲,由于市场预期,政府会保持宽松的货币政策,并对中国经济进行定向刺激,人民币会有所上升,美元对人民币的汇率可能会下降到6.2甚至6.2以下。但从长期来看,由于中国的经济增长速度以及经常项目顺差会逐渐下降,资本流动可能不会进一步加强。由此,他提出一年、两年的汇率预期是美元对人民币6.25以及6.35。

English version:

瑞银外汇分析师余修远 谈人民币走势 (中文版本)