US growth: Lost in translation
In a world full of divergences, the US continues to stand out as a country delivering both solid and accelerating growth. The S&P 500 is at the top of the leaderboard for major global equity markets, and the US dollar has outperformed almost every major currency in 2014. We maintain our largest overweight positions in the country, with preference for US equities, US high-yield credit, and the US dollar. We believe US real GDP will expand 2.9% in 2015, up from 2.2% this year. This means the US, by itself, will account for more than half of the global growth improvement in 2015.
At a glance
- The US continues to stand out as a country delivering both solid and accelerating growth, and both the S&P 500 and the US dollar have outperformed this year.
- It has benefited from a strong monetary policy response, prompt banking sector recapitalization, and the shale gas revolution.
- While the US recovery has not been faultless - inequality has risen and public debt is high - no other region seems yet ready to take over the US position of economic leadership.
- We maintain overweight positions in US assets - US equities, US high-yield credit, and the US dollar.
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