UBS Securities Research
Daily round-up
Wednesday 23 May 2012 - Euro Clash - do they stay or do they go?
Presented by Paul Donovan
Greek former PM Papademos said he saw risks of Greece leaving the Euro, before clarifying that there are no preparations underway for departure. We believe that any departure could not be conducted in an orderly fashion, and these remarks would seem to confirm that.
UBS does not see a Greek exit, but if it transpires we do not believe Greece walks alone; other countries would leave as well. The Chairman of China's CIC warns of the same risk. European leaders sit down to dinner with this as a backdrop. We do not expect much from the meeting.
Japan was downgraded again by one of the credit rating agencies. General market indifference seems to be the normal reaction to such decisions, and rightly so. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, and made no mention of its inflation "goal" in its policy statement.
The Bank of England proffers the minutes of its last meeting, with signs of shifting views from the members. The Bundesbank monthly report is also due. UK retail sales may be made soggy by the weather in April, and US new home sales follow some good existing home sales figures yesterday.
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