Latest research and views

Fundamental research is an integral part of our investment processes across many of our strategies. Below is a selection of our views and strategic level papers from some of our investment areas.

Economist insights

UBS Global Asset Management's weekly Economist Insights is authored by Joshua McCallum, Senior Economist within our Fixed Income area since 2005.

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Latest research

January 2012 - Economic and market developments in perspective

Global Asset Views

April 2012
Economic and market developments in perspective
Global AM’s Cyclical Market Forum meets quarterly and includes representatives from all investment teams, chaired by Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions. The Forum discusses and votes on the probability of three economic scenarios and the implications for asset classes. Global Asset Views provides forecasts for growth and inflation in the world’s biggest economies under each scenario, and discusses the outlook for asset classes including equities, fixed income and currencies. Read more (eng) pdf

Quarterly Investment Strategy

March 2012
Leading indicators of a continuing recovery
The QIS highlights our positioning and market views; this issue's Focus article, "Leading indicators of a continuing recovery," argues that despite continuing volatility, positive signs suggest that a healing US economy may be able to sustain recent market gains. Read more (eng) pdf

 

Sugar high

March 2012
Global Investment Solutions - Current Perspectives
Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions, remarks that the markets seem to be racing around like a toddler that has had its way with a bowl full of candy. The ‘candy’ consists of vast quantities of liquidity from central banks. Curt notes that, although candy tastes good, it is full of ‘empty’ calories, giving the child a ‘high’ for a few hours but unable to sustain the body for a longer period. He argues that central banks run a huge risk with inflation expectations on the rise. Read more (eng) pdf

 

Global Real Estate - Americas

March 2012
Outlook Quarterly - US real estate market
Broad uncertainty inhibits investors' embrace of improving US economic conditions, while commercial real estate recovers from the excessive write-downs of 2009. Read more pdf

 

Back to the future

March 2012
Global Investment Solutions - Current Perspectives
Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions, looks at long-term developments in the investment world, which he says may end up resembling the 1970s more than the environment we experienced over the past decade. He highlights six of the big-picture trends that continue to evolve. Read more (eng) pdf (deu pdf)

 

Global Real Estate - Asia Pacific

March 2012
Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook 2012
Economic expansion in the APAC region whilst still robust is expected to be weighted down by growing global uncertainties. This will likely bring about increased cyclicality and growing divergence in real estate performance. This outlook provides a strategic overview of the APAC markets highlighting both the opportunities and risks. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Europe

March 2012
UK commercial real estate market Outlook 1H12
The sovereign debt crisis and ongoing uncertainty has started to affect the overall economy and the UK may fall back in to a technical recession in 2012. Consequently, investors still prefer more risk-averse strategies and new regulation in the financial industry will also limit debt availability, especially for more risky strategies. We believe that alternative financing sources are less likely to fill the gap in UK real estate debt and would focus mainly on the core segment. As a result, UK commercial real estate is likely to enter a period of deleveraging, which is expected to put pressure on non-core real estate capital values. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Europe

March 2012
Eurozone commercial real estate market - Outlook 1H12
The eurozone sovereign debt crisis and new regulations in the financial markets are both anticipated to impact upon real estate investors, pushing them ever more towards core strategies. Opportunities in the prime segment are limited, while a small number of core secondary opportunities are widening the investment landscape. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Americas

February 2012
US Real Estate Market Outlook 2012
The US economy continues a modest paced expansion, with low confidence being the main governor on improving fundamentals. Real estate prices are recovering from recessionary write-downs, as income growth returns to some sectors but continues to fall in others. Our positive outlook strengthens on the improvements of the past year. Read more pdf | Travel companion pdf

Equities

February 2012
Think Big, Act Small: taking advantage of smaller company investing
A look at why it may be an opportune time for investors to consider increasing their commitment to small cap strategies. Read more (eng) pdf

 

Global Real Estate - Global strategy updates

January 2012
More of the same for 2012
The global economic outlook has darkened over the last six months leaving investors deeply cautious. In this environment, core real estate markets are likely to continue to remain the preferred property type. Secondary markets will continue to be hampered by weak fundamentals and investor risk aversion. Read more pdf

 

Endgame

January 2012
Global Investment Solutions - Current Perspectives
Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions, discusses the crises affecting politics and markets worldwide, and argues that they must be resolved with bitter austerity sweetened by freshly printed money and fizzing with contentious transfers of wealth – a cocktail he calls ‘Endgame’. Read more (eng) pdf (fra) pdf

Quarterly Investment Strategy

December 2011
Equities: If not now, when?
The QIS highlights our positioning and market views; this issue's Focus article, "Equities: If not now, when?" combines the perspectives of our fixed income, asset allocation and equity teams to describe the outlook and potential opportunities for equities in 2012. Read more (eng) pdf

Global Real Estate - Americas

December 2011
US real estate market – Outlook quarterly
US economy resumed a moderate growth track during the third quarter, while commercial real estate fundamentals continue to recover to sustainable levels. Read more pdf

 

Special Investment Topics - Investing in 2012

November 2011
Investing in 2012
Investing in 2012 is our flagship annual series surveying the world in the upcoming year for investors, covering both cyclical and long-term themes. This year, topics include sovereign wealth funds, active management of equities, the eurozone crisis, political leadership changes, environmental degradation, and the probability of a recession in 2012. Read more (eng) pdf  (deu) pdf  (fra) pdf  (ita) pdf

Global Real Estate - Europe

November 2011
London focus research paper – London defies UK slowdown?
Concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and outlook have dominated the news headlines and slowed business activity in recent months. Real estate research & strategy have assessed London's economic performance versus the UK as a whole. Read more pdf

Special Investment Topics - Riding the cycle

October 2011
Riding the cycle
This paper illustrates the benefits of diversification and flexible asset allocation. Strategists Matthew Richards and Marc Schaffner explains how, just as cyclists need to change gear to suit the terrain, investors need to change their asset allocation when the economic cycle enters a new phase. The authors describe the “upswing”, “boom”, “downturn” and “recession” phases, and outline the asset classes that tend to perform best in each phase. Read more (eng) pdf (deu) pdf

Global Real Estate - Americas

October 2011
US real estate market – Outlook quarterly
US commercial real estate has recovered significantly from its lows, but future returns are likely to be more aligned with long-term historical levels. Read more pdf

 

Quarterly Investment Strategy

September 2011
Preparing for signs of confidence
The QIS highlights our positioning and market views; this issue's Focus article, "Preparing for signs of confidence," looks at the post-recession recovery and discusses the impact on markets of recent government policies and investors' risk-averse behavior. Read more pdf

Strategic Investment Advisory - Americas

August 2011
Pension risk management: The discipline needed to protect contributions
Francois Pellerin, head of Asset Liability Investment Solutions, analyzes the impact of contributions made to US corporate pension plans, and dispels a common misconception that market performance is the main determinant of funded status. He also highlights the importance of protecting contributions through pension risk management and discusses how funded status may drive a plan sponsor's actions. Read more pdf

NB THIS IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY (INCLUDING CONSULTANTS)

Global Real Estate - Global strategy updates

October 2011
Global real estate trends – A recovery, put in context
A new paper from GRE concludes that institutional investors in commercial real estate are likely to reposition their portfolios towards assets that offer more stable income streams, less volatility and some downside protection against extreme events. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Europe

August 2011
Swiss Outlook 2H11 - Schweizer Immobilienmarkt
Owing to the upward pressure on appreciation in 2011, we expect Swiss residential real estate to reach return levels witnessed in 2010. For the coming two years, total returns are expected to fall to the level of income returns. The potential for future appreciation in commercial real estate is limited given the fragile economic environment. Read more (deu) pdf (fra) pdf

Global Real Estate - Europe

August 2011
Eurozone commercial real estate market - Outlook 2H11
European real estate is facing a challenging fiscal environment due to the current sovereign debt crisis and this may impact the real estate market causing it to lag. We still, therefore, recommend core real estate strategies in Europe. Read more pdf

 

Global Real Estate - Americas

August 2011
Special report-US - Commercial real estate expectations
Recent political and economic events have put the equity markets in turmoil, yet our real estate view remains as "cautious return to growth". Read more pdf

 

Global Real Estate - Europe

August 2011
UK commercial real estate market - Outlook 2H11
In recent weeks, uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has intensified due to the sovereign debt crisis (Europe & US), which has led to fear in the financial markets. In contrast to the turmoil in Europe and the US, the UK is in a slightly better position but continues to face its own challenges. Melanie Brown discusses the outlook for UK real estate for 2H11. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Global strategy updates

August 2011
Strategy update 2H11
Real estate – Safe-haven status?
Investors seeking safe havens have to accept a loss of income on their portfolios with assets such as gold that do not pay a dividend. This is not the case with real estate. Liz Troni from GRE Research & Strategy discusses the issue. Read more (eng) pdf (deu) pdf

Global Real Estate - Global strategy updates

August 2011
"Core for More?" – Will investors overstretch in their reach for yield?
In this latest strategy update, Liz Troni from GRE Research & Strategy examines whether or not it is time to move up the risk spectrum. Read more pdf

 

Global Investment Solutions

August 2011

It’s the economy...

“It’s the economy, stupid” became a slogan of the Clinton campaign during the 1992 US election to draw attention to the effects of a recent recession. It seems apt again today. Read more pdf

 

Special Investment Topics - Meet the neighbors

June 2011
Integrating hedge funds into an asset allocation framework
Many investors are looking at hedge funds in the wrong way. That’s one of the key messages from this publication, which is the fruit of a joint research effort by Vincent Couson, head of strategic alternative solutions, and Wolfgang Batt, hedge funds product specialist. The authors present their rigorous analysis in an engaging and accessible way. They argue that instead of treating hedge funds as a separate asset class, investors should see each hedge fund as a way of actively investing in traditional asset classes such as equities, fixed income or commodities. Read more (eng) pdf (deu) pdf

NB THIS IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY (INCLUDING CONSULTANTS)

Global Investment Solutions - Current Perspectives

July 2011
Whose inflation is it anyway?
Curt Custard discusses the conundrums for policymakers facing diverging trends in core inflation, headline inflation and asset price inflation. He also explains the problems inherent in two suboptimal currency areas that make up two-thirds of the world economy, namely the eurozone and the US dollar bloc. Read more (eng) pdf (fra) pdf

 

Special Investment Topics - Better Income

June 2011
How multi-asset portfolios seek to provide stable income, preserve capital and protect against inflation?
The current environment is tricky for income investors, with interest rates close to zero in the US, Japan and the UK. The challenges and opportunities facing income investors are the subject of this paper by strategists Matthew Richards and Daniel Rudis. They argue that, for many income investors, a multi-asset strategy with asset allocation adjusted dynamically according to market conditions is better than investing in only one asset class such as equities or bonds. Read more (eng) pdf (deu) pdf (ita) pdf

Global Real Estate - Americas

June 2011
US real estate market - Outlook quarterly
The fragile US economy showed weakness during 1Q11, representing anticipated recovery fluctuation, but is continuing positive growth. Commercial real estate delivered an unsustainable quarterly return of 3.4% and should settle into normal performance during the year. Read more pdf

Special Investment Topics

April 2011
Emerging currencies in emerging markets
The currencies of export-driven Asian economies such as Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea have appreciated significantly against the US dollar. Global Investment Solutions (GIS) head of currency Jonathan Davies and GIS strategist Matthew Richards examine the powerful forces that have driven these currencies’ appreciation. They argue that mounting inflationary pressures in Asia have created a 'trilemma' in which monetary authorities must choose either high inflation, increasingly costly currency-market interventions or stronger currencies, and that they will opt for the latter. Read more pdf

Global Investment Solutions - Current Perspectives

April 2011
To infinity and beyond
China recently became the world’s second-largest economy. Many commentators are predicting that continued rapid growth will see China surpass the United States as the world’s biggest economy in about 20 years. Comparing China today with Japan in the 1980s, Curt Custard argues against extrapolating China’s recent growth too far into the future. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Europe

February 2011
Eurozone commercial real estate market - Outlook 1H11
Despite stabilization in the eurozone economy and real estate market in 2010, we remain cautious on this year's market outlook given the expected increase in financing events. We believe that core strategies are still the best risk-adjusted strategies even though some counter-cyclical opportunities appear to be emerging. Read more pdf

Global Real Estate - Americas

February 2011
US real estate market - Outlook 2011
With a recession more than a year in the past, the US economy continues its gradual improvement as we enter 2011. Commercial real estate pricing improved dramatically during 2010, in anticipation of the improving conditions. Fundamental conditions remain a bit week but are strengthening and expected to produce positive growth by year-end. Barring any economic or sector shocks, 2011 should be a year of modest yet improving growth. Read more pdf