In this paper Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions (GIS), and Matthew Richards, a GIS strategist, argue that the asset management industry is being reshaped by evolutionary pressures. They analyse the effects of demographic, economic and industry-specific changes, and set out ways in which asset managers are adapting to a tougher environment.
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Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions, remarks that the markets seem to be racing around like a toddler that has had its way with a bowl full of candy. The ‘candy’ consists of vast quantities of liquidity from central banks. Curt notes that, although candy tastes good, it is full of ‘empty’ calories, giving the child a ‘high’ for a few hours but unable to sustain the body for a longer period. He argues that central banks run a huge risk with inflation expectations on the rise.
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Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions, looks at long-term developments in the investment world, which he says may end up resembling the 1970s more than the environment we experienced over the past decade. He highlights six of the big-picture trends that continue to evolve.

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Curt Custard, head of Global Investment Solutions, discusses the crises affecting politics and markets worldwide, and argues that they must be resolved with bitter austerity sweetened by freshly printed money and fizzing with contentious transfers of wealth – a cocktail he calls ‘Endgame’.

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Curt Custard discusses the conundrums for policymakers facing diverging trends in core inflation, headline inflation and asset price inflation. He also explains the problems inherent in two suboptimal currency areas that make up two-thirds of the world economy, namely the eurozone and the US dollar bloc.

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China recently became the world's second-largest economy. Many commentators are predicting that continued rapid growth will see China surpass the United States as the world's biggest economy in about 20 years. Comparing China today with Japan in the 1980s, Curt Custard argues against extrapolating China's recent growth too far into the future.

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Volatility is likely to be here to stay for as long as slow growth and uncertainty over the direction and effectiveness of macro policy reign. The current market is a target-rich environment but it requires a greater than usual ability to be nimble, a focus on the facts and fundamentals through the noise and bluster and a solid understanding of the risks driving portfolios.

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Cold, wet winds have recently blown across European capitals and markets alike. Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone as it is currently structured or will recent events finally force greater integration? In this changeable climate, investors have to be nimble or have strong stomachs.

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While stuck in a snowdrift at Beijing airport, Curt Custard reflects on his situation as a metaphor for the world economy and markets. With the plane's tail still on the runway, he and his fellow travellers are perilously positioned - waiting for Chinese workers to bail them out while worrying about something that could take off their tail.

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While the next six months or so should offer relatively safe sailing, the outlook beyond that is quite uncertain. Curt Custard discusses three possible scenarios: a U-shaped recovery, a V-shaped recovery or a W-shaped ('double-dip') and gives a view on the most likely outcome.

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In the second paper in this series, Curt Custard turns his attention to the long-term trends that he believes will develop as we emerge from the current crisis and concludes that the next 10 to 15 years won't look like the recent past.

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Curt Custard reflects on 2008 and the outlook for 2009 as President Obama's stimulus package makes its way through the US Congress. Can the appetite for 'hope' and 'change' be met?

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