2012 FORMULA 1 JAPANESE GRAND PRIX
Suzuka Circuit, October 5-7 2012
UBS Race Strategy Briefing
The UBS Race Strategy Briefing before each Grand Prix gives you the lowdown on all the vital considerations the F1 teams will take on board when deciding what Race Strategy to use in the forthcoming Grand Prix. A bad decision can cost a race victory, whereas a bold gamble can sometimes steal one from the jaws of defeat. So put yourself in the know and get the inside line on how the race will be won.
UBS Race Strategy Report
The UBS Race Strategy Report is a unique analysis of the key decisions on the pit wall and in the cockpit that decided the outcome of the latest Grand Prix. It's the indispensable guide to the who, the why and the how behind every Grand Prix result.
Year | Driver | Constructor | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
2011 |
Jenson Button |
McLaren-Mercedes |
Suzuka |
2010 |
Sebastian Vettel |
Red Bull-Renault |
Suzuka |
2009 |
Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull-Renault | Suzuka |
2008 |
Fernando Alonso |
Renault | Fuji |
| 2007 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren-Mercedes | Fuji |
| 2006 | Fernando Alonso | Renault | Suzuka |
| 2005 | Kimi Räikkönen | McLaren-Mercedes | Suzuka |
Suzuka – 5.807 kilometres. Race distance - 53 laps = 307.471 kilometres. 18 corners in total. High speed, figure of 8, a real drivers’ favourite
Aerodynamic setup – High downforce. Top speed 324km/h (with Drag Reduction System active on rear wing) - 312km/h without.
Full throttle – 70% of the lap time (ave/high). Total fuel needed for race distance – 148 kilos (ave/high). Fuel consumption – 2.73 kg per lap (ave/high)
Time spent braking: 10% of lap (low). Number of brake zones – 9. Brake wear- Light. Not a tough race on brakes.
Loss time for a Pit stop = 16.8 seconds (ave)
Total time needed for pit stop: 20.8 seconds (ave)
Fuel effect (cost in lap time per 10kg of fuel carried): 0.385 seconds (high)
This year’s 2012 FORMULA 1 JAPANESE GRAND PRIX will not be the title decider, as it was last year, instead it will be a crucial race in the hunt for the title which is likely to go down to the last race in Brazil in November.
The Suzuka circuit has a special place in the drivers’ hearts, along with Spa Francorchamps, as it provides a great driving challenge with its high speed corners and the first sector of the lap in particular is special, with a series of fast, winding curves through which there is only one really fast line.
Strategy wise it was a three stop race last season and this year Pirelli is again bringing the soft and supersoft tyres. However we have seen a trend this year of races taking one less stop than in 2011, so two stops will probably be the most common strategy.
Race strategy was the decisive factor in last year’s race as McLaren’s Jenson Button had the pace to stay with pole sitter Sebastian Vettel early on in the race and was able to manage his tyres better in the opening stint so that he could pit a lap later than the world champion and emerge in front of him.
Despite DRS, Suzuka is still a tricky track on which to overtake, even though there are places like the chicane after the famous 130R corner, where we do see passing.
The Japanese Grand Prix is the 15th round of the 2012 FIA F1 World Championship. Last year Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel was crowned world champion for the second time, at this race.
This year he is chasing Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso and has clawed back the gap to 29 points with six races remaining. By this stage last year he had won nine races, while this season it is just two. Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso are the only drivers to have won three races this year. After his retirement in Singapore, the title is a long shot for Hamilton who must win this race to stay in contention.
McLaren is the form team at the moment, having scored pole position at each of the last four races and won three of them. Red Bull took a step forward in Singapore with a raft of updates while Ferrari needs to find some extra speed to stay on terms.
As far as drivers’ and teams’ form at Suzuka is concerned; Michael Schumacher has won there six times, Sebastian Vettel twice, Fernando Alonso once (he also won at Fuji), Lewis Hamilton once while Jenson Button won last year. Kimi Raikkonen won a classic race in 2005, overtaking for the lead on the last lap.
After the stifling humidity of Singapore the drivers and engineers will be pleased to get back to more normal temperatures. Being coastal, Suzuka is always likely to get sudden rain showers, sometimes heavy. The forecast for this weekend however is good with forecasts of up to 27 degrees and sunshine. If it stays warm the tyre degradation will be more severe.
Pirelli tyre choice for Suzuka: Soft (yellow markings) and hard (silver markings). This combination was seen in Spain and Silverstone.
Teams are likely to be mindful of what happened with this combination of tyres at Silverstone, where the hard tyre was the better race tyre and Mark Webber won with an opening stint on soft and then two longer stints on hard.
Last year Pirelli brought the soft and medium tyres to Suzuka and they were on the limit with blistering. Partly this was due to the camber the teams were running on the front wheels, but also to temperature build up in the shoulder of the tyre.
This year Pirelli have worked on this and they are bringing the hard tyre instead of the medium, which should mean that the tyres are capable of covering a wide range of eventualities and conditions. It can be cool at Suzuka in October, wet even, but it can also be 30 degrees. Thermal degradation is likely if the temperatures are higher, so that will mean more stops.
Suzuka presents a great challenge for the tyres, with loadings in excess of 800 kilos on the tyre through some of the corners.
The performance gap between the soft and hard tyres is likely to be around a 0.6 seconds to 0.8 seconds per lap.
With the first sector of the lap featuring a series of high energy corners putting lateral load into the tyres, warm up is not much of a problem at Suzuka.
Last year the top three finishers all did exactly the same strategy with three stints on used soft tyres and a final stint on new mediums. The difference was in the tyre degradation each of them suffered and the laps on which they chose to pit. Button was able to run a slightly longer opening stint than Vettel and took the victory that way.
This year we have tended to see races run with one less stop than in 2011, so the likely strategy for Suzuka this year is some drivers doing two stops and some drivers doing three.
With the temperatures looking like they will be quite high, thermal degradation will be the limiting factor, particularly on the front tyres and that will dictate strategy. Teams will react to degradation once it kicks in and make stops. As with Singapore, a safety car can make the difference between managing on two and having to make a third stop.
A Safety Car will always help drivers who are making one less stop. With the likelihood of a Safety Car reasonably high, there is always the argument for building in flexibility to the strategy to have the chance of making two stops work.
For the teams with good tyre wear like Sauber and Lotus this could be another race to make two stops work and to score points.
The chance of a Safety Car at Suzuka is 60% with 0.6 Safety Cars per race. As accidents at Suzuka tend to be at high speed there is often wreckage to be cleared away. There has been at least one Safety Car in four of the last five races at Suzuka and we have seen one in each of the last three years.
Starts are a critical part of the race and strategy can be badly compromised by a poor start, while good starts can make strategists change their plans in the hope of a good result.
As far as 2012 starts are concerned here is a table with indications of drivers who have gained or lost places at the start.
Note- This table is intended as an indicator of trends. Where drivers have had first lap incidents which dropped them to the back of the field, they are not included above, but are detailed in the notes marked * below. This affects other drivers’ gains, but the sample still shows prevailing trends of places won and lost at the start. 2012 FORMULA 1 SHELL BELGIAN GRAND PRIX start is not included as it eliminated many cars, skewing the sample.
Gained:
+26 Massa *
+24 Glock
+22 Kovalainen, Senna
+21 Alonso
+20 Perez
+14 Vergne
+13 Raikkonen
+12 Pic
+9 Karthikeyan
+5 Maldonado, Kobayashi, De la Rosa
+4 Hamilton, Schumacher, Hulkenberg
+3 Di Resta , Button
+1 Petrov*, Vettel
Held position:
Lost:
-3 Grosjean, Webber
-5 Rosberg
-13 Ricciardo
* Massa (puncture) and Petrov (broken nose) pitted for repairs on lap 1 in Singapore after making contact.
Of course good strategy planning also requires good pit stop execution by the mechanics and there have been some amazing performances; we have seen tyre stops carried out in less than two and a half seconds this year.
The table below shows the fastest single stop by teams in the recent Singapore Grand Prix.
| Rank | Team | Pit stop time |
|---|---|---|
| 1. (1) | McLaren | 2.94secs (1) |
| 2. (4) | Red Bull | 3.12secs (3) |
| 3. (5) | Ferrari | 3.19secs (2) |
| 4. (2) | Lotus |
3.37secs (5) |
| 5. (3) | Mercedes | 3.55secs (7) |
| 6. (11) | Toro Rosso |
3.79secs (4) |
| 7. (6) | Force India |
4.03secs (10) |
| 8. (9) | Sauber | 4.04secs (11) |
| 9. (7) | Caterham | 4.1secs (8) |
| 10. (8) | Williams | 4.23secs (6) |
| 11. (10) | Marussia | 4.65secs (9) |
Strategy Report
Suzuka Circuit October 7 2012
The Japanese Grand Prix this year was a fairly straight forward race, largely due to the lack of competition at the front, after Fernando Alonso was eliminated at the start and Mark Webber and Romain Grosjean were thrown down the order following their collision.
Nevertheless strategy played a central part in Felipe Massa’s break-though result and led to some of the other talking points of the race, like the Perez vs Hamilton battle and Schumacher’s challenge for points from the back of the grid.
Pre-race thinking
Before the race, the thinking was that two stops was the way to go, the main concern was the blistering of the Pirelli tyres, which does not initially affect the pace, but does upset the balance, due to vibration. The inside shoulder of the front tyres was a particular concern. Pirelli had brought hard and soft tyres to Suzuka and the soft had proved to be a second a lap faster in qualifying conditions and around 0.4secs per lap faster in race conditions.
The hard tyres were slower, but did not blister as much as the soft tyres and were also more durable. To make it to 53 laps starting with a set of soft tyres that had already done three laps in qualifying, meant getting to around lap 14/15 before the first stop and then two stints of up to 20 laps each.
Our strategy calculator had predicted stops for new hard tyres on laps 14 and 34 was a likely strategy and so it proved, although in some cases the first stop was delayed by a couple of laps thanks to the Safety Car, deployed for the startline accidents.
Simulations showed that two stops would be faster than three stops by 10 seconds, but teams were prepared to switch to three if the tyre degradation proved too much. It didn’t.
In the end, because of the two accidents at the start, which eliminated Alonso and Rosberg and put Grosjean and Webber down the order, the race was a foregone conclusion for Vettel and strategies were conservative and the stint lengths were pretty even. Also the Lap 1 safety car helped drivers extend the first stint by a couple of laps, which made a difference.
Massa: Playing it long pays dividends!
Felipe Massa had a very strong drive in the second Ferrari, starting 10th he finished in second place, his first podium for two years.
It was built on great strategy and a fantastic start, which saw Massa rise from 10th to fourth on the opening lap, thanks to avoiding the chaos of the Webber/Grosjean collision and the Alonso/Raikkonen incident.
Because he had failed to reach the final part of qualifying, Massa had a set of new soft tyres to start the race with and two new sets of hards available and his strategy was based on making maximum use of these. Thanks to his strong start he found himself racing Button and Kobayashi for second place and his new soft tyres gave him a tactical advantage in the opening stint, as he could run a couple of laps longer than Button and Kobayashi.
The McLaren was a little harder on its tyres in Japan so Button was in on lap 13, Kobayashi a lap later. Button’s pace when he stopped was similar to Massa’s and he believes that the team stopped him too early. He’s right.
When he came out of the pits he was behind Ricciardo in the Toro Rosso, who had been between 0.8s and 1.2s per lap slower than him prior to the stop. Another lap or two at that pace and he should have cleared him, but clearly the tyres were close to the “cliff”, so McLaren played it safe.
This turned out to be crucial because Button was 16 seconds behind Massa when he came out of the pits and that went out to 19 seconds in three laps, enough for Massa to pit and clear both him and Kobayashi who was also stuck behind Ricciardo.
New tyres for Massa at the start meant that he could run a crucial three laps longer than them in the first stint and take second place by running longer.
Massa was also quick on the hard tyres and posted his best result for two years, which shows that he hasn’t lost his speed. Perhaps his problem of the last two seasons has been more psychological.
Other strategies worth noting
Sergio Perez tried to do the same thing as Massa, running a longer first stint in order to jump Kimi Raikkonen. Although behind him on the track, the Sauber was faster in the first stint than the Lotus and Sauber’s strategists tried to run two laps longer than Raikkonen, who stopped on lap 13. Raikkonen was vulnerable because he had had to substitute an older set of tyres for the start, having damaged his qualifying tyres in a spin.
Sauber’s plan failed because Perez ran out of tyre life with the result that when he came out from his stop on lap 15 he was not only still behind Raikkonen, but now also behind Hamilton.
The psychology of being behind the man he’s replacing at McLaren next season was interesting and Perez appeared keen to prove a point, but he lost control of his car when battling with Hamilton and was out.
Mark Webber recovered well from his first lap incident with Grosjean. He finished in ninth place, eight seconds behind the fifth placed car.
Webber pitted on lap one for new tyres and then had the misfortune of seeing the race restarted when he had still not caught up to the pack behind the Safety Car. He was still 17 seconds behind the last car at the restart!
He effectively did a one stop strategy from there, using another new set of hard tyres at his stop on lap 26 and driving to the flag. This showed that the revised Red Bull is not only very fast but also good at looking after its tyres thanks to updates on the rear suspension and rear aerodynamics, which improve traction and reduce wheelspin.
Michael Schuamcher also had to come through the field from 23rd on the grid after a penalty. He started on new hard tyres and his strategy made use of the fact that he had two new sets of soft tyres available, so he stopped for them on laps 17 and 36. He gained 12 places, but the underlying car pace wasn’t there as it was for Webber, so he missed out on points. He spent much of the first half of the race behind Paul di Resta.
Thanks to his start, up from 23rd to 16th, Schumacher also avoided having to pass the Caterham/Marussia/HRT cars all of which Webber had to get through in the first 17 laps.
The UBS Race Strategy Report is written by James Allen with input and data from several teams’ strategists and from Pirelli.
Tyre Choices
| Driver | Tyre choice at the start | Pit Stop 1 | Pit Stop 2 | Pit Stop 3 | Pit Stop 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vettel: |
SU |
HN (17) |
HN (37) |
|
|
Massa: |
SN |
HN (17) |
HN (36) |
|
|
Kobayashi: |
SU |
HN (14) |
HN (31) |
|
|
Button: |
SU |
HN (13) |
HN (35) |
|
|
Hamilton: |
SU |
HN (16) |
HN (31) |
|
|
Räikkönen: |
SU |
HN (13) |
HN (30) |
|
|
Hülkenberg: |
SN |
HN (13) |
HN (31) |
|
|
Maldonado: |
SU |
SN (16) |
HN (33) |
|
|
Webber: |
SU |
HN (1) |
HN (26) |
|
|
Ricciardo: |
SN |
SU (17) |
HN (34) |
|
|
Schumacher: |
HN |
SN (17) |
SN (36) |
|
|
Di Resta: |
SN |
HN (13) |
HN (32) |
|
|
Vergne: |
HN |
SN (18) |
SU (35) |
|
|
Senna: |
SN |
HN (1) |
HN (16) |
DT (21) |
SN (34) |
Kovalainen: |
SN |
HN (18) |
HN (41) |
|
|
Glock: |
SN |
HN (20) |
HN (40) |
|
|
Petrov: |
SN |
HN (19) |
SU (42) |
DT (48) |
|
De La Rosa: |
SN |
SU (17) |
HN (36) |
|
|
Grosjean: |
SU |
HN (1) |
SG (7) |
HN (22) |
|
RACE HISTORY
Shows the gaps between the cars throughout the race. The zero line represents every lap turned at the winner’s average lap time.
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