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UBS Outlook Switzerland: The year in scenarios
UBS economists forecast an economic growth rate of 2.1% for Switzerland in 2014. In the latest UBS Outlook Switzerland, analysts outline different scenarios for the international economy and various national ones, as well as selected asset classes.
Zurich/Basel, 10 February 2014 – UBS economists project the Swiss economy to post a solid 2.1% growth rate in 2014. A robust rise in consumption should conspire with the recovery in Europe to spur Swiss exports and equipment manufacturing. In 2014, the two-and-a-half-year trend of slightly rising unemployment is expected to end, accompanied by a consumer price increase of 0.5% thanks to higher capacity utilization in the Swiss economy.
As a baseline scenario for the exchange rate, CIO WM Research analysts see the Swiss National Bank maintaining the floor versus the euro until at least 2015. The EURCHF exchange rate is expected to remain stable over the next 12 months. The Swiss National Bank will likely only abandon the floor once the European Central Bank has signaled an end to the euro crisis by raising interest rates.
UBS real estate analysts forecast a slight price increase of 2% for single-family dwellings and condominiums in 2014, despite loans becoming more expensive and high construction volumes. Rising Swiss incomes and population growth are the principal factors helping to compensate for these slowing effects.
UBS Outlook Switzerland also includes a sector panorama with an analysis of the quarterly survey of industrial and service companies. Survey results indicate that a trend reversal into positive territory has started in most industries. The business situation in the service sector is still seen as very good, due in part to increased demand for services.
The supplement Investing in Switzerland is also included; it provides assessments of the Swiss equity and bond markets by CIO WM Research analysts.
In developing the UBS CIO WM Research economic forecasts, UBS CIO WM Research economists worked in collaboration with economists employed by UBS Investment Research. Forecasts and estimates are current only as of the date of this publication and may change without notice.
Daniel Kalt, UBS Chief Economist Switzerland
Phone +41 44 234 25 60, firstname.lastname@example.org
Veronica Weisser, UBS CIO Wealth Management Research
Phone +41 44 234 50 62, email@example.com
Sibille Duss, UBS CIO Wealth Management Research
Phone +41 44 235 69 54, firstname.lastname@example.org
Bernd Aumann, UBS CIO Wealth Management Research
Phone +41-44-234 88 71, email@example.com
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