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UBS Outlook Switzerland: how future initiatives and regulations might affect Switzerland as a business location

Zurich/Basel | | Media Releases Switzerland

 

Several popular initiatives are aimed at restricting the Swiss economic system, in some cases dramatically. In the latest issue of UBS Outlook Switzerland, UBS examines the business-relevant popular initiatives being voted on in the coming years.

Zurich/Basel, 3 July 2013 – Over the next few years a course will be set for key aspects of economic policy at the ballot box in Switzerland, in core areas such as the labor market, immigration policy and tax matters. In UBS outlook Switzerland, UBS economists analyze the possible economic impact of the political proposals which could affect the favorable conditions in Switzerland that have developed over time. "In the coming months, the Swiss electorate will decide at the ballot box whether Switzerland will remain an attractive location for small and medium-sized enterprises and major companies. What's at stake here is entrepreneurial freedom and consequently growth and prosperity over the medium and long term," said Lukas Gähwiler, CEO UBS Switzerland, at a media event in Zurich.

With regard to the current economic situation, UBS expects the economy to grow by 0.9% this year and 1.3% next year. The UBS's forecast is slightly below the expectations of most other research institutes, due to a somewhat more pessimistic assessment of the European economy and a slight deterioration in service sector activities observed in recent months. In addition, a sustainable recovery is not in sight for industrial companies. The recession in Europe, the strong Swiss franc and high immigration are speeding up structural change, away from an export-driven industrial nation toward a consumption-oriented service-based economy.

For the time being, UBS does not expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to tighten monetary policy. It anticipates the SNB making its first interest rate move at the end of 2015 at the earliest. Despite the expansive monetary policy, UBS sees no immediate risk of inflation and expects deflation of 0.3% this year.

Besides analyses of the property and financial markets, the supplement provided with UBS Outlook Switzerland includes an assessment by UBS analysts of the Swiss equity and bond markets.

In developing the UBS CIO WM Research economic forecasts, UBS CIO WM Research economists worked in collaboration with economists employed by UBS Investment Research. Forecasts and estimates are current only as of the date of this publication and may change without notice.

UBS AG

Media contact

Daniel Kalt, UBS Chief Economist Switzerland
Phone +41 44 234 25 60, daniel.kalt@ubs.com

Caesar Lack, UBS CIO Wealth Management Research
Phone +41 44 234 44 13, caesar.lack@ubs.com

Sibille Duss, UBS CIO Wealth Management Research
Phone +41 44 235 69 54, sibille.duss@ubs.com

Stefan R. Meyer, UBS CIO Wealth Management Research
Phone +41 44 235 38 26, stefan-r.meyer@ubs.com

UBS Outlook Switzerland: www.ubs.com/research

UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/economicresearch / http://www.ubs.com/wmr-swiss-research

www.ubs.com