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Q-Series Report: Avian Influenza: The Next Human Influenza Pandemic?

New York | | Media Releases Americas

Avian influenza has raised concerns of a potential pandemic, causing serious economic repercussions according to a new "Q-SeriesTM" report released by UBS.

The report, entitled "Avian Influenza: The next human influenza pandemic?" examines the likelihood of an avian flu (H5N1) diagnosis and treatments, manufacturing issues and selected pharmaceutical companies that could benefit.

UBS's global pharmaceutical and biotechnology teams, led by European Biotechnology analysts Sven Zimmerman phD and Martin Wales phD, have combined their analysis' with reviews of scientific literature and documents from the World Health Organization. In addition, the team has analyzed available treatment options, and the supply of anti-viral drugs and vaccines to cope with an outbreak of the human H5N1 strain.

The report covers the key pharma and vaccine players that could benefit, their anti-virals, and the financial impact and valuations for the respective firms. After a thorough review of the data, the UBS team concludes:

· The avian influenza virus is by no means eradicated but is now endemic in many rural areas in south-east Asia.
· Avian influenza may travel along the routes of migratory birds to Europe and may infect domestic birds such as chicken unless very efficient measures are taken.
· Drug treatment alone will not contain a pandemic outbreak but pandemic planning will likely provide a revenue boost to the affected companies, mainly Roche.
· With an ever-increasing focus on vaccination, vaccine manufacturers with cell-based production approaches will likely be at the forefront of developing an avian flu vaccine.

UBS is one of the world's leading financial firms, serving a discerning global client base. As an organization, it combines financial strength with an international culture that embraces change. As an integrated firm, UBS creates added value for clients by drawing on the combined resources and expertise of all its businesses.

UBS is the world's largest wealth manager, a top tier investment banking and securities firm, and one of the largest global asset managers. In Switzerland, UBS is the market leader in retail and commercial banking.


*For copies of the "Q-SeriesTM" report "Avian Influenza," please contact:

Allison Chin-Leong at 212-882-5693.



New York, October 3, 2005
UBS