Follow Joshua McCallum
Joshua McCallum is Head of Fixed Income Economics at UBS Global Asset Management, where he provides economic analysis to support and challenge portfolio managers. Before joining UBS in 2005, Joshua worked for the UK Treasury, dealing with an eclectic range of topics including international macroeconomics, the UK budget, economic reform in Europe, and post-conflict fiscal policy in Iraq.
The Federal Reserve appears to be holding steady on its call for the future path of US GDP growth, despite the disappointing Q1 figures. Q1 GDP growth is often much lower than other quarters, primarily due to winter weather and some seasonality effects. The Fed is more focused on wage growth than one quarter of GDP growth. And the most important measure of wage growth is accelerating sharply.
The outcome of the upcoming UK election is very uncertain, and investors will be considering the impacts of the different potential outcome scenarios. The odds of a formal coalition are looking quite low, leaving the UK likely to have a minority government, relying on a partner party or parties with a 'confidence and supply' agreement. We look at the likely market perception of some of the possible outcomes.
Greece now stands closer to an exit from the single currency than ever before. Thanks to domestic politics in all the other Eurozone countries, it seems almost inevitable that it would come to a crisis. No politician was willing to capitulate as long as there was hope that they might win at the next negotiation. But as the eleventh hour now approaches when Greece may have to default, the path becomes far more confusing. There is a veritable maze of possible outcomes. Crises may arise and be resolved, only to turn into a crisis again.
The outcome of the UK election on 7 May is very uncertain. The odds of a formal coalition are looking quite low, leaving the UK likely to have a minority government, relying on a partner party or parties with a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement.
Red vs Blue
Mathematical possibilities based on current polls of different strengths of Conservative and Labour-led governments.
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