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Joshua McCallum is the senior Fixed Income Economist at UBS Global Asset Management, where he provides economic analysis to support and challenge portfolio managers. Before joining UBS in 2005, Joshua worked for the UK Treasury, dealing with an eclectic range of topics including international macroeconomics, the UK budget, economic reform in Europe, and post-conflict fiscal policy in Iraq.

Joshua McCallum recently

August 2014

  1. A(sia)synchronous

    Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    A closer look at the Global Financial Crisis reveals it may not have been that global after all. Asian Emerging Markets managed to remain relatively stable throughout the crisis despite external volatility, largely due to robust credit growth and an influx of excess global liquidity. Now credit is still growing but the economies are slowing.

  2. The missing piece

    Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    In the UK, wage growth has remained weak despite the strong economy. Since 2011, the expected relationship between higher wages and higher employment has broken down. Is this to do with an increased supply of labour or weak productivity growth, or simply that it is taking longer for higher employment to translate into higher wages?

  3. Prediptable

    Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    In every year since 2010, economists have started the year being surprised by the economic data, were quickly disappointed over the next six months, and were then positively surprised by the strength of the data for the rest of the year. Why has this pattern held, and why have economists so far not changed their behaviour to take it into account?

Recent charts

European countries are divided into two leagues, core and periphery. It should not be surprising if some countries (such as Spain) eventually get promoted to the core.