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Joshua McCallum is the senior Fixed Income Economist at UBS Global Asset Management, where he provides economic analysis to support and challenge portfolio managers. Before joining UBS in 2005, Joshua worked for the UK Treasury, dealing with an eclectic range of topics including international macroeconomics, the UK budget, economic reform in Europe, and post-conflict fiscal policy in Iraq.

Joshua McCallum recently

September 2014

  1. Story time

    Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    Investors like to find a ‘story’ to explain complicated markets, and the stories stick around until a shock brings them to an end. Since 2009, there have been four stories that dominated the US Treasury market for certain periods, each about what the Fed would do next. Investors now need to figure out what could disrupt the current story, and they should be looking at this week’s Fed monetary policy statement with interest.

  2. Careful what you wish for

    Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    The ECB has introduced an asset purchasing programme earlier than expected. The announcement stated the importance of structural reforms and also that fiscal policy should be seen at an aggregate level rather than a country level. Structural reforms in countries such as Italy and France could keep inflation low for longer. If this is not compensated for by more spending in the core, it could end up forcing the ECB into a more aggressive QE programme.

  3. Hole-in-two

    Blog post | Tags: Joshua McCallum

    The central bank conference at Jackson Hole usually brings news about the Federal Reserve, but this time round it was the same story from Chair Yellen that the unemployment rate isn't everything. Instead, ECB President Draghi seized centre stage. By pointing out that the participation rate explains much of the difference between US and Eurozone unemployment, Draghi made  clear that monetary policy is no longer about just inflation and unemployment. 

Recent charts

European countries are divided into two leagues, core and periphery. It should not be surprising if some countries (such as Spain) eventually get promoted to the core.