Follow Dr. Andreas Höfert
-
On European austerity
In recent weeks a subtle shift in how officials discuss current economic policy in Europe has become noticeable. At the start of the year the only possible solution for ailing economies, according to Brussels and Berlin, was even more austerity. The Italian elections, the spectacular increase in unemployment to record highs, forecasts that call for a second straight year of Eurozone GDP contraction, and friction between France and Germany that has become increasingly tense – all have conspired to put austerity in a less favorable light.
-
The Japanese tradition of monetary experiments
The announcement by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) of its plan to double the monetary base and double its holdings of Japanese government bonds within the next two years to achieve a 2% inflation target has split economists. Some hail this policy, which has been dubbed 2222, as the long-awaited relief from the double decade of deflationary stagnation.
-
Reinhart and Rogoff erred – so what?
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (R+R) are among the best known economists of the financial crisis. Their monumental 2009 book, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, has become a classic. Equally known, quoted and referenced also among policymakers is their American Economic Review article from 2010, “Growth in a Time of Debt.”
-
A real alternative for Germany?
People in Southern Europe are not the only ones more and more antagonized by the euro. Also in Germany, anger and frustration against the common currency are getting louder. The latest irate expression has been the recent creation of an anti-euro party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD).
-
Dominance and the “flation” debate
The debate about whether the ultimate outcome of the 2007-08 financial crisis will be deflationary depression or inflationary stagnation is ongoing. Empirical evidence won’t help us here. Some countries, especially in the European periphery, have GDPs well below where they were in 2007, unemployment rates over 20% and internal devaluation leading to deflation. Other countries, like the UK, are stagnating as inflation runs above the once-stated objectives of their central banks.
-
On frustrated politicians and politics of frustration
Some years ago being a politician in Western democracies was a prestigious job: thrilling election campaigns, the formation of national policy in parliament or the ultimate prize of leading the country. Today, it seems the politician’s job boils down to frustration, as hands are more and more tied – as is especially true in Europe.
-
Mario Draghi’s triple Cs
This is not about a new European credit rating but about Mario Draghi’s recipe to restore growth in the Eurozone, which is currently stagnating at best. At the beginning of the latest EU summit on March 14, which saw an unfortunate outcome for Cyprus, the ECB President and erstwhile professor of economics gave European leaders a crash course on the current economic misère of the Eurozone and ways to remedy it.
-
Cyprus and European amateurs
As is now typical for Eurozone crises, an agreement on Cyprus was finally reached in the early hours of Monday – just hours before a self-imposed deadline. The agreement drastically shrinks the Cypriot banking sector and imposes capital controls on the Mediterranean island and may well induce a deep and prolonged recession.
Webcasts with A. Höfert
Appearances in the media
- 10. Okt. 2012 - "Le système est de plus en plus instable"
- 14. Sep. 2012 - Tagesanzeiger: Die Bilanz einer turbulenten Woche
- 13. June 2012 - Interview "Finanz und Wirtschaft" - "So viel Zeit verloren"
- May 23, 2012 - DRS 4 aktuell "Freiwillig tritt Griechenland nicht aus der Euro-Zone aus"
- May 11, 2012 - RTS, Le Journal du Matin - «La Grèce devra choisir si elle reste dans la zone euro»
- May 9, 2012 - Interview Tagesanzeiger - "Die Griechen werden ihre Ersparnisse verlieren"
- May 07, 2012 - RTS, Présidentielle française/Effets sur la Suisse: entretien avec Andreas Höfert, chef économiste chez UBS
- April 14, 2012 - Interview FAZ am Sonntag - "Die Krise meldet sich zurück"
-
Mar 28, 2012 - Interview St. Galler Tagblatt - "Wie der Turm von Pisa"
- Feb 21, 2012 - DRS1, Tagesgespräch - UBS-Chefökonom Andreas Höfert zur Eurokrise
-
Jan 26, 2012 - L'Hebdo - Table ronde: "Difficile de croire à une reprise cette année"
- Jan 13, 2012 - TSR, Le Journal - Dégradation de la dette française: entretien avec Andreas Höfert, chef économiste UBS
- Dec 9, 2011 - NZZ Online - «Mit jedem gescheiterten Gipfel wird der Schaden grösser»
- Nov 30, 2011 - La Liberté - «L’implosion de l’euro n’est pas loin»
Products and services in these webpages may not be available for residents of certain nations. Please consult the sales restrictions relating to the service in question for further information.
© UBS 1998-2013. All rights reserved.
Social bookmarks