Despite the complexity of the European crisis, categorizing the characters has been quite simple so far. First we have Greece, the country where it all started and which could now be the first to exit the Eurozone. Then there are the so-called “weak” countries like Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, and the so-called “strong” countries, chief among them Germany but also the Netherlands, Austria and Finland. Finally, there are some countries in between, like France or Belgium.

France’s change in leadership gives Europe a chance to rethink how it handles the ongoing crisis. Seizing the day could avert that the current Greek electoral mess and rebellion might become the norm in other Eurozone countries.

The European crisis started over two years ago, but so far measures to solve or even mitigate it have been ineffectual. Not that European leaders haven’t tried hard; recall the numerous “meetings of last chance” convened in 2011. However, in my view, solutions so far have not paid sufficient due to a fundamental economic rule: People react to incentives.

Debt-ridden countries in Europe are fiercely debating the best strategy to free themselves: austerity, which might hurt growth; or stimulus, which might delay fiscal discipline indefinite future. As usual, escaping a dilemma like this requires more finesse than just taking sides.

Crises usually challenge existing institutions. The financial crisis of 2007/2008 is no exception; its repercussions are still being felt. Many pundits are currently stressing the weakness of democratic governments in challenging times.

As the French presidential election enters its final stages, the rhetoric has sharpened between incumbent president Nicolas Sarkozy and his socialist challenger François Hollande. Yet for all their efforts to distinguish themselves from each other, the two front-runners are united in their refusal to acknowledge some hard truths about the dire state of the French economy.

Being a chief economist can take you to quite different places within a very short time. Two weeks ago, I was meeting clients in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic capital and the largest city in the southern hemisphere with roughly 20 million inhabitants. A few days later, I was meeting other clients in St. Gallen, a picturesque town in northeast Switzerland almost 300 times smaller than São Paulo. Yet the Brazilian megalopolis and the Swiss town have something in common: The strength of the local currency is bothering and even frightening many people.

France will elect its president in a first round on 22 April, and in a second on 6 May. A non-French outsider might sometimes be puzzled about the themes and debates animating the campaign.