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Andreas Höfert

Andreas Höfert is Chief Economist Wealth Management and Regional Chief Investment Officer Europe.

Andreas Höfert recently

May 2014

  1. Everything is fine in Europe…

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    Many political analysts were expressing this sentiment even before the results of the European Parliamentary elections were known. And in a certain sense they’re right. Even with populist, nationalistic, unorthodox and anti-European parties now accounting for roughly 20% of all seats in the European Parliament (extreme left parties making another 10%), there is no reason to believe that anything fundamental will change in the way policy is made at the European level.

  2. Has winter returned to the Eurozone?

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    The European first-quarter GDP numbers released last week disappointed the majority of economists and investors. Consensus was expecting a 1.6% annualized growth rate, but barely half that was achieved. More importantly, the last quarter of 2013 showed the six largest Eurozone economies posting growth simultaneously for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008/9, but this could not be confirmed in the latest release.

  3. Why it's not easy to make disciplined investments

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    If you travel a lot like I do, and therefore spend a lot of time in airports, you will certainly have noticed the many finance books in the bookstores there. In these books, one advisor after another tries to tell you how to be a successful investor, how you can increase your assets two-, three- or tenfold in no time at all, how to always win on the stock market without fail, and how you can profit from the next rally or the next crash.

  4. Central Europe: the very good, the not so bad and the not so ugly anymore

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    The European Commission just published its spring forecasts: the EU and the Eurozone are expected to grow in 2014 and 2015 after two years of GDP declines in 2012 and 2013. The forecast growth will not be spectacular however; it lags US expectations for the same period.

  5. Greece: investors can be fooled, but mathematics cannot

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    Greece did it on April 9 and Portugal two weeks later (having done it previously in January). Both countries, among those hardest hit by the euro crisis and the austerity straitjackets imposed on them, came back to the markets to issue government bonds.

April 2014

  1. The European deflation menace

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    On 30 April we will know whether the Eurozone March inflation rate, which registered 0.5%, represented the low point in the trend of sliding prices observable since October. The vast majority of economists thinks so and argues that special factors, especially the late timing of Easter, can explain this exceptionally low figure.

  2. Germany's vagaries when it comes to retirement

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    The coalition contract between the two main German parties (Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats of the SPD) heralded change a couple of months ago, and now we have the confirmation: Germany intends to reverse some of the reforms that have made it successful in recent years. This doesn’t bode well for Germany’s medium-term economic prospects, but paradoxically might help to mitigate the lingering euro crisis.

  3. ECB’s potential sophistry in assessing deflation

    Blog post | Tags: Andreas Höfert

    Deflation is not yet here – at least not for the entire Eurozone. Inflation is merely very low with a 0.5% year-on-year report in March and several countries (including Spain, Greece and Portugal) already posting negative consumer price inflation. So far the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its cool. Despite more “dovish” communication, the ECB has stuck to its guns in its last two meetings and not adopted a more expansive monetary stance.

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