Industry trends

In coming decades, most countries with established, mature economies will face a major demographic shift related to declining birth rates. This means that while the number of retired citizens will rise, there will be fewer younger people available to replace them in the workforce and therefore fund their retirement. Due to this demographic trend, pension reform is on the agenda of many governments across the world.

The strong reliance in Continental Europe and Japan on unfunded schemes will make reform especially urgent in these locations. Although each country will follow its own regulatory agenda, UBS sees a general and gradual shift from unfunded public pension schemes to privately funded ones. This development benefits both the asset gathering and investment banking businesses. Aside from managing pension mandates, asset management businesses will increasingly address other issues such as asset and liability management for under-funded defined benefit corporate pension funds. With strong capabilities in derivatives and structured products, investment banks also fill an important role in this area.

In wealth management, UBS believes that current developments will influence the demand for retirement-specific products. Private clients usually experience a mind-set change when they enter the sixth decade of their life – the focus shifts from wealth accumulation to wealth protection. Appropriate products and services are needed in order to help these individuals to fund and secure their retirement, representing a substantial growth area for the financial services industry.