Financial assets and financial liabilities in UBSs trading portfolio,
financial assets and liabilities designated at fair value,
derivative instruments, and financial assets available-for-sale
are recorded at fair value on the balance sheet. Changes in
the fair value of these financial instruments are recorded in
Net trading income in the income statement, except for financial
assets
available-for-sale, for which changes in fair
value are recorded directly in equity until realized or the assets
are considered impaired. Key judgments affecting this
accounting policy relate to how UBS determines fair value
for such assets and liabilities.
Where no active market exists, or where quoted prices
are not otherwise available, UBS determines fair value using
valuation techniques. In these cases, fair values are estimated
from observable data in respect of similar financial instruments,
using models to estimate the present value of expected
future cash flows or other valuation techniques, using
inputs existing at the balance sheet dates. If available, market
observable inputs are applied to valuation models (level
2). In cases where market observable inputs are not available
for all significant valuation parameters, they are estimated
based on appropriate assumptions (level 3). At 31 December
2008, financial assets categorized as level 2 amounted to
CHF 965 billion (31 December 2007: CHF 799 billion) and
those categories as level 3 amounted to CHF 57 billion
(31 December 2007: CHF 76 billion). At 31 December 2008,
financial
liabilities categorized as level 2 amounted to CHF
931 billion (31 December 2007: CHF 615 billion) and level 3
to CHF 46 billion (31 December 2007: CHF 59 billion).
Valuation models are used primarily to value derivatives
transacted in the over-the-counter market, including credit
derivatives, unlisted equity and debt securities (including
those with embedded derivatives), and other debt instruments
for which markets were or have become illiquid in
2008. All valuation models are validated before they are
used as a basis for financial reporting, and periodically
reviewed
thereafter, by qualified personnel independent
of the area that created the model. Wherever possible,
UBS compares valuations derived from models with prices
of similar financial instruments, and with actual values
when realized, in order to further validate and calibrate
UBSs models.
A variety of factors are incorporated in UBSs models, including
actual or estimated market prices and rates, such as
time value and volatility, and market depth and liquidity.
Where available, UBS uses market observable prices and
rates derived from market verifiable data. Where such factors
are not market observable, changes in assumptions
could affect the reported fair value of financial instruments.
UBS generally applies
its models consistently from one period
to the next, ensuring comparability and continuity of valuations
over time. However, models are changed or adapted
to market developments in situations where peviously used
models have limitations and are assessed to be inadequate.
Estimating fair value inherently involves a significant
degree
of judgment. Management therefore establishes valuation adjustments
to cover the risks associated with the estimation of
unobservable input parameters and the assumptions within
the models themselves. Valuation adjustments are also made
to reflect such elements as deteriorating
creditworthiness (in247
Financial information
cluding country-specific risks), concentrations in specific types
of instruments and market risk factors (interest rates, currencies,
etc.), and market
depth and liquidity. Although a significant
degree of judgment is, in some cases, required in establishing
fair values, management believes that the fair values
recorded in the balance sheet and the changes in fair values
recorded in the income statement are reflective of the underlying
economics, based on UBSs established fair value and model
governance policies and the related controls and procedural
safeguards UBS employs. For a description of the valuations of
UBSs positions related to the US student loan auction rate securities,
monolines, leveraged finance transactions, US and
non-US reference linked notes, US commercial mortgage
backed securities and other instruments which were determined
relevant for specific disclosure refer to Note 27.
Uncertainties associated with the use of model-based
valuations
(both level 2 and level 3) are predominantly addressed
through the use of model reserves. These reserves
reflect the amounts that UBS estimates are appropriate to
deduct from the valuations produced directly by the models
to reflect uncertainties in the relevant modeling assumptions
and inputs used. In arriving at these estimates, UBS considers
the range of market practice and how it believes other market
participants would assess these uncertainties. Model
reserves
are periodically reassessed in light of information
from market transactions, pricing utilities, and other relevant
sources. The level of these model reserves is, nevertheless, to
a large extent a matter of judgment.
To estimate the potential effect on the Financial Statements
from the use of alternative valuation techniques or
assumptions, UBS makes use of the model reserve amounts
described above, by scaling the level of the model reserves
higher and lower, to assess the impact on valuation of increasing
or decreasing the amount of model-related uncertainty
considered.
The potential effect of using reasonably possible alternative
valuation assumptions has been quantified as follows:
Scaling the model reserve amounts upward in line with
less favorable assumptions would reduce fair value by approximately
CHF 2.5 billion at 31 December 2008, by
approximately
CHF 2.7 billion at 31 December 2007 and
approximately CHF 1.0 billion at 31 December 2006.
Scaling the model reserve amounts downward in line with
more favorable assumptions would increase fair value
by
approximately CHF 1.4 billion at 31 December 2008, approximately
CHF 2.2 billion at 31 December 2007, and approximately
CHF 1.0 billion at 31 December 2006.