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Marcel Ospel & Marcel Rohner | |
Dear shareholders,
During the quarter, stock markets recovered from the lows reached in mid-March. However, credit market conditions deteriorated
sharply from the middle of June onwards. As in first quarter, UBS demonstrated that it is prepared for such mixed conditions,
and showed increased results. While we did sustain trading losses in certain areas, these were balanced by income gains elsewhere,
and, even excluding the gain on the disposal of our stake in Julius Baer, net attributable profit from the financial businesses
reached a new record.
This quarter, our results include two items that had a significant impact on performance. The first was the CHF 1,926 million post-tax gain from the sale of our 20.7% stake in Julius Baer. A result of our disposal
of Private Banks & GAM in 2005, the stake was held as a financial investment available-for-sale in our accounts. The gain
from the sale is therefore included in performance from continuing operations. The second item is the charge related to the
closure of Dillon Read Capital Management (DRCM). In May, we announced that DRCM, an alternative investment venture launched
in 2006, had not met our expectations and, as a result, we had decided to close the business. This process has now been practically
completed. We paid back DRCM's CHF 1.5 billion in outside investor interests, with clients receiving a positive return on
their original investment. The portfolios, plus UBS's own capital that was previously managed by DRCM, have moved to the Investment
Bank and are now managed within the fixed income division in an integrated fashion. The closure of DRCM led to a charge against
profits of CHF 384 million pre-tax (CHF 229 million after tax). This includes accelerated amortization of deferred compensation
of former DRCM employees and, to a lesser extent, writedowns for DRCM office leasehold improvements. Including both items
– the gain from the sale of the Julius Baer stake and the charge for the closure of DRCM – our financial businesses achieved
net profit attributable to UBS shareholders of CHF 5,152 million (from continuing operations). Without these two items, our
result would have been CHF 3,455 million in second quarter 2007, up 14% from the same period a year earlier and 9% higher
than the record first quarter 2007 performance.
Our key performance indicators – annualized return on equity (RoE), quarterly diluted earnings per share (EPS) and the cost/income
ratio – were impacted by the same factors. Including them, RoE was 33.0%, EPS CHF 2.69 and the cost/income ratio 62.0%. Excluding
them, RoE would have been 29.8% and EPS CHF 1.84, while the cost/income ratio would have been 68.0%, compared with 68.1%
in first quarter.
Net fee and commission income reached a record high in second quarter 2007. At CHF 8,099 million, it represented 52% of operating income. The result was 26% higher than in the same quarter of 2006,
and driven by improvements in practically all fee categories. The investment banking business saw a very strong rise in M&A
and corporate finance fees and higher equity and debt underwriting fees. One measure of the strength of our market position
is our global market share. According to Dealogic, this improved to 5.8% in first half 2007 from 4.9% a year earlier. We grew faster than the 21.3% rate of the overall fee
pool and our rank rose to fourth from eighth. We achieved market share gains in all regions and product lines. Invested asset
levels rose to CHF 3.3 trillion, and, as a result, asset-based fees in our asset and wealth management businesses rose.
Net new money inflows in second quarter 2007 remained strong. In our wealth management units, inflows totaled CHF 35.2 billion,
with strong contributions from all markets. The asset management business, however, saw net outflows of CHF 2.0 billion. This
reflected the redemption of the DRCM outside investor interests (CHF 1.5 billion) and net outflows from institutional equity
mandates – which were partly offset by inflows into multi-asset mandates, alternative and quantitative investments and real
estate. In first half 2007 and for the whole of UBS, the inflows of net new money totaled CHF 86.8 billion compared with CHF
84.3 billion in first half 2006 – clearly demonstrating the strength of our wealth and asset management capabilities.
As we indicated at the start of this letter, trading businesses are by their nature volatile.Reflecting mixed market developments, the second quarter 2007 result from our trading businesses saw significant swings in
both directions.Overall, net income from trading businesses was CHF 3,106 million, down 9% from second quarter 2006. Equities revenues rose
from the same quarter a year earlier, supported by positive market conditions, generating strong revenues in Europe. However,
we were not satisfied with our fixed income performance. Continued difficulties in the US mortgage securities market led to
lower revenues in our rates business and further losses in some of DRCM's former portfolios. The DRCM business itself contributed
net negative revenues of approximately CHF 230 million in second quarter 2007. These developments were partially offset by
robust credit fixed income results, which rose on global credit trading and proprietary strategies.
Over the last two years, each of our businesses has exhibited periods of excellent performance. As our strategy is long-term and not built on the assumption that markets are always benign, we focus on fundamental trends
in client behavior and client needs to identify opportunities for sustainable growth. We also take into account the many challenges
and risks we face. In the latest scheduled annual review of our strategy, the Board of Directors and the Group Executive Board
concluded that our direction, strategic position and choice of businesses should remain unchanged. In particular, we reaffirmed
our belief that our "one firm" approach creates more value for clients and, in turn, for shareholders. Growth in all business
groups, and in all countries, is higher than it would be if our business groups operated independently of one another.
As you know, we are working on a number of growth initiatives that are at various stages of implementation. Among them are
the expansion of the European wealth management business and US wealth management, together with investment in the Investment
Bank fixed income businesses, where we recently appointed Andre Esteves as the new head. The basic strategy of these initiatives
remains unchanged. In implementing them, however, we need to balance revenue opportunities with operational and economic
efficiency. Thus, the tactics involved in executing our growth strategy will continue to be adapted to varying market conditions.
Outlook – This quarter's downturn in credit and equity markets was a timely reminder of the nature of financial risk, and has continued
into third quarter. Our asset and wealth management businesses show sustained strength, and investment banking deal pipelines
remain promising. However, markets are currently very volatile, and forecasting is even more difficult than usual. If the
current turbulent conditions prevail throughout the quarter, we will probably see a very weak trading result in the Investment
Bank, offset by predictable earnings from wealth and asset management. This makes it likely that profits in the second half
of 2007 will be lower than in the second half of last year.
14 August 2007
UBS