Financial markets experienced greater volatility
in 2004 than in 2003 largely because of the rise
in oil prices and continued geopolitical instability.
Still, most equity markets made progress
with strong gains seen in fourth quarter as falling
oil prices and a clear-cut US election result
increased investor confidence. Most actively
managed global and regional equity portfolios
outperformed for the quarter and for the full-year
2004. The Global Equity composite outperformed
its benchmark over the quarter due to
strong stock selection, particularly in the US markets,
but performed marginally below benchmark
(after fees) for the year.
Most global bond markets recorded total
returns for 2004 well in excess of cash returns. In
fourth quarter, European markets outperformed
US Treasuries as yield movements reflected divergent
prospects for growth and the relative weakness
of the US dollar. Non-government bonds
continued to prosper in every major market as
they were supported by a stable economic outlook
and demand for higher yielding securities.
Our Global Bond composite performed just
below its benchmark in 2004.
Asset allocation mandates benefited from
strong returns across equities worldwide, especially
in emerging markets. Stock selection contributed
positively in US and emerging equities
and US bonds. Currency strategy had a neutral
effect on performance, as positive results from an
underweight of US dollars in favor of Asian currencies
were offset by an underweight in the
appreciating UK sterling. Longer-term returns
against benchmark remain positive.
In alternative and quantitative investments,
performance was generally positive in 2004. All
key equity-oriented strategies recorded positive
returns, while a difficult macroeconomic environment
contributed to slightly negative returns for
our macro trading strategy. The fourth quarter
saw continued mixed trading conditions for
hedge funds, with returns mainly positive. Merger
arbitrage strategies reported strong performance
during the quarter, while strategies based on
quantitative models generally finished flat. Performance
for other equity and arbitrage strategies
was positive. A difficult macroeconomic environment
contributed to negative returns for our
macro trading strategy for the quarter. The
multi-manager teams were able to generate profits
from most strategies, with strong funds of
hedge fund performance during the quarter.
Real estate investments performed well during
2004.